Agri-Food Sector (Food & Beverage)

In the United States, Italian agri-food products were traditionally subject to relatively low MFN (Most-Favored-Nation) tariffs, with exceptions for certain products. For example, Italian wine is subject to a very low base tariff (approximately 1-2% of the value, amounting to a few cents per liter), while cheeses are subject to higher tariffs and tariff quotas (quotas)—which can result in effective tariffs of around 20–40% outside the quota. Italian olive oil has, until now, been duty-free (0%). Since April 2025, however, the US has introduced an additional tariff General Information on the +10% on (almost) all imports, including food products. This means that wine, pasta, olive oil, etc., are currently subject to a +10% surcharge in addition to the base tariffs. For cheeses, which are already heavily taxed, the total tax rate can reach “up to 40%”This measure falls under the “reciprocal tariffs” desired by the US administration and could rise to 20% for the EU after July 2025, if an agreement is not reached. In the past, certain Italian products had been subject to additional tariffs of 25% (for example, Parmigiano Reggiano, pecorino, liqueurs, and cured meats) since October 18, 2019 within the context of the Airbus/Boeing dispute; such tariffs they were suspended in June 2021 thanks to a five-year US-EU truce. Currently, therefore, the only extra duty in force The general +10% tariff mentioned above applies to EU agri-food products (in the absence, for now, of the threatened +20%).

Impact: Italian exporters in the agri-food sector are among the most vulnerable. Coldiretti and other organizations estimate that a 20-25% tariff on Italian foods and wines could severely reduce their competitiveness. According to Unimpresa, a 25% tariff would put at risk approximately 1.8 to 2 billion euros a year of Italian agri-food exports (out of ~€7.8 billion in annual exports to the USA). Iconic products like the wine (1.7 billion € per year of exports to the USA) are at risk of a sharp drop in sales – we are talking about a “possible collapse of wine exports (2 billion euros to the US alone)” in case of full implementation of the new tariffs. Even PDO cheeses (e.g., Parmigiano, Grana Padano, ~340–500 million euros annually) would suffer: in recent years, the imposition of the +25% tariff had already eroded margins and raised prices for American consumers (up to +€1.6 billion of overall price increases according to Coldiretti. In general, the entire agri-food sector (food & beverage) Italian sees around 8 billion in annual exports at stakeIn the short term, some companies brought forward shipments (stockpiling) before the tariffs came into effect, mitigating the immediate impact.. However, in the medium to long term, a price increase of approximately +10-20% could shift some U.S. demand toward competing products from other countries or domestic alternatives. The estimated net effect is a reduction in agri-food exports Italians in the US of about -6.51 TP3T with duty +101 TP3T and until -10% with a duty rate of 20%, barring agreements that avoid these taxes.

Fashion and Luxury Sector (Apparel, Footwear, Leather Goods)

Fashion system products Made in Italy - clothing, footwear, leather goods - currently face non-negligible MFN duties in the US, generally from ~5% to 12% (depending on the materials and items). For example, fabric garments, knitwear, and many other clothing items are subject to U.S. duties of around 10–12%, while for leather footwear and leather accessories, the rates are often in the range of’8-10%. These base rates had been stable for years; in fact, the United States traditionally also applies tariffs higher of the European Union on many fashion items (in 61% of the footwear categories and 54% of the apparel categories, U.S. tariffs exceed those of the EU). No specific sector increases It recently happened for fashion – the sector was not involved in the punitive Airbus tariffs or similar disputes. However, from April 5, 2025 Italian fashion also falls under the General Additional Duty +10% US tax. This means that, for example, a “Made in Italy” garment previously subject to 12% is now taxed at ~22%; a leather bag goes from 8% to ~18%, and so on. As of the end of May 2025, these additional duties were temporarily annulled by a judgment of the US Court of International Trade, but the decision was immediately suspended on appeal and the tariffs remain in force. The additional tariff rate for the EU could rise to 20% after July, bringing tariffs on clothing, for example, to around 30% total. It should be noted that the sectors luxury e high fashion often they have higher margins and a clientele willing to pay, so they could absorb part of the costs without passing them entirely onto final prices.

Impact: The United States is a key market for Italian fashion (high-end clothing and accessories in particular). A tariff increase risks slowing growth in this sector: mid-to-high range products would see retail prices rise significantly, potentially reducing volumes. Government estimates indicate a possible decline in total exports (all sectors) of ~-6,5% with duties at 10%. For fashion, the blow could be slightly mitigated by the strength of brands and the relatively low elasticity of luxury goods, but it would still be significant. Smaller, lesser-known companies could suffer more from the loss of price competitiveness. In summary, the additional tariffs risk eroding the market share of Italian products to the benefit of both local competitors US even from suppliers in unaffected countries (e.g., trading partners with free trade agreements with the US). If, on the other hand, the tariffs were removed through an agreement, this negative impact would be avoided and Italian companies would continue to benefit from strongly growing American demand (in 2024, Italian fashion exports to the US were up by a double-digit percentage).

Technology and Electronic Machinery Sector

In the field of technology and high-tech machinery (electrical machines, electronic equipment, household appliances, precision instruments, etc.), the United States has historically applied MFN tariffs very low. Many high-tech products fall under international agreements such as the ITA (Information Technology Agreement) and are duty-freefor example, electronic components, computers, semiconductors, and medical devices often pay 0% of US import tariffs. On average, the US tariff level on non-agricultural industrial goods was only ~2%. Therefore, for Italian electrical machinery and equipment as well, the base duty is typically between 0 and 5%. Until 2024, there were no significant tariff changes for this sector: neither the anti-China tariffs (Section 301) nor recent trade disputes involved technological Made in Italy. However, like all sectors, the tech sector is also now hit by the general US tariff introduced in 2025: currently, a +10% additional on imports from Italy. For example, a household appliance or piece of industrial machinery that previously entered duty-free is now subject to a 10% tariff. For some allied countries with smaller trade surpluses (e.g., the United Kingdom, Brazil), the U.S. has maintained only the +10% tariff, while for the’For the European Union, a +20% is theoretically expected (currently suspended until the end of July pending negotiations). If such an increased tariff were to enter into force, Italian technological products that have been duty-free until now would be subject to 20% of duty. It should be noted that they remain exempt from any tariff certain strategic categories (mentioned in the American Executive Order) such as semiconductors and pharmaceutical products – this favors countries with strong pharmaceutical exports like Ireland, but partly concerns Italy as well (for medical machinery and pharmaceuticals, which are already duty-free).

Impact: In the short term, the effect on Italian technological machinery has been limited: many American importers accelerated their purchases in the first quarter of 2025 (+11,8% of Italian exports to the USA in the first 3 months) in anticipation of tariffs, by stockpiling. This temporarily boosted sales volumes. In the medium term, however, a permanent tariff of 10-20% could make Italian machinery and equipment less competitive. The American question could shift towards alternative suppliers: for example, manufacturers Americans (if available for that specific good) or imports from countries with free trade agreements that exempt them from duties (such as Canada, Mexico, South Korea, etc.). It should be noted that in the high-tech machinery sector, Italy often excels in highly specialized niches (automation, packaging, etc.) where substitution is not immediate. Therefore, the estimated impact is moderate but not negligible: an economic analysis predicts that a 20% tariff partially passed on to final prices (an effective increase of 15%) could, in sectors with high price elasticity, reduce exports by several percentage points in the long run. Ultimately, Italian technology companies could see slower growth in the US and pressure to shift some sales toward alternative markets if the US tariffs remain in place for a long time. Conversely, a potential removal of the extra tariffs would immediately return this sector to zero tariffs, restoring the pre-2025 conditions of free competition.

Machinery Sector (Industrial and Agricultural)

“Non-electric” machinery – for example, machine tools, industrial plants, pumps, valves, and packaging machines – constitutes a fundamental component of Italian exports. The United States applies very moderate MFN tariffs on these devices: often 0% (many industrial machines are duty-free) or at reduced rates (2-5%). Even the agricultural machinery (tractors, combine harvesters, etc.) traditionally enjoyed zero tariffs in the U.S. Since 2018, a 25% tariff had been in effect on certain steel and aluminum products (Section 232), which also indirectly affected machinery containing those metals, but the EU had secured an exemption quota starting in 2021. In the February 2025 However, the United States has fully restored section 232 tariffs: European steel and aluminum are now subject to the 25% tariff again, with no exemptions. This has increased the costs of semi-finished metal products. Furthermore, starting in April 2025 all machinery from Italy is subject to additional duty 10% Already cited. Industrial machinery, being “non-consumer” goods, had never been the target of specific punitive tariffs under Trump 1 (except for aerospace industry machinery indirectly involved in the Airbus dispute). Therefore, the main modifications recent for this sector are: (1) the +10% General Effective as of April 2025 (potentially +20% after July for the EU), and (2) the Reinstatement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (March 2025), which mainly affects the supply of raw materials and metal components. Note: Separately, the United States has introduced since April 3, 2025 a 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts important. This concerns the European automotive industry (e.g., also penalizing exports of luxury cars made in Italy and Italian automotive component suppliers) but, strictly speaking, it falls under means of transport rather than general machinery.

Impact: Industrial machinery accounts for approximately 20% of Italian exports to the U.S. and have driven growth in recent years. An additional tariff of 10-20% risks reducing the competitiveness of this equipment, particularly in sectors where there are American competitors. For example, for the agricultural machinery, local producers such as John Deere or Caterpillar could benefit from a price advantage in the domestic market compared to Italian manufacturers. Italian players (niche tractors, vineyard equipment, food machinery, etc.) could lose orders or see their margins squeezed if they decide to absorb part of the tariff to maintain prices. Minister of Enterprises Adolfo Urso has warned that the new US tariffs will have a significant impact on supply chains in crisis such as automotive and related components, which supplies many European homes in Italy and now sees foreign demand threatened. As for the other mechanical sectors, at the moment no drastic drops are recordedrather, the first few months of 2025 saw an increase in deliveries, a sign of front-loaded purchases. In the long run, however, analysts predict negative effects: European businesses might have to reposition part of the sales to other markets and lost quotas in the USA in favor of North American manufacturers or exempt countries. An estimate by the Confindustria Study Center indicates that, considering all mechanical and electronic goods, as many as 59% Italian products traded with the USA have enjoyed a tariff advantage until now (US tariffs lower than EU ones). This competitive advantage is wiped out by reciprocal tariffs: if tariffs were to remain high, approximately 32 billion dollars of Italian exportsin sectors such as mechanics, automotive, and agri-food could experience contractions. In conclusion, the impact on machinery could manifest in a export slowdown Italian towards the USA and in relocation investments (to evade tariffs by producing locally) should the tariff barrier persist for a long time. The actual impact will depend on the duration of the tariffs: one agreement scenario and the withdrawal of tariffs within a few months would limit the damage, whereas a continuation of tariffs it could cost the Italian machinery sector several hundred million euros the year in lost exports.

Summary table by sector and US tariffs

Sector	Current US tariff(MFN + extra)	Recent changes(variations, tax rates, dates)	Estimated impact on Italian exporters
Agri-food – Wine	Low base duty (approximately 1–2% of the value); +10% additional current (possible +20% after July 2025).	+25% imposed 18/10/2019 (Airbus dispute) and removed July 2021; +10% general, effective as of April 2025 (EU duty 20% announced, suspended until July 2025).	Prices +10-20% → decline in competitiveness. Exports at risk of ~€2 billion (annual wine exports to the USA approx. €1.7 billion) Estimate -10% volumes if duty 20% (–6.5%, already with +10%). Potential price increases for US consumers (~€1.6B); companies pushed towards other markets.
Agrifood – Cheese	High base duties with quotas (within quota ~15%, outside quota as high as 20-30%); currently +10%Extras currently in effect (total up to ~40%).	+25% Airbus since 2019 on PDO cheeses (Parmigiano, etc.), suspended 7/2021. Today, an additional duty of 10% applies to all EU cheeses (from April 2025); risk of an increase to 20%.	Very high tariffs are holding back exports of Parmigiano & Co. Estimated losses of hundreds of millions of €/year. Unimpresa: direct damage ~€1.95 billion Annual if 25% across all agricultural land. Possible decline in production: 15-30%. Producers fear erosion of margins and market shares in the USA; some importers might replace Italian cheeses with local/external alternatives.
Fashion – Clothing	MFN tariff medi ~10-12%on clothing, textiles; since 2025 +10% extra (→ actual ~20-22%). Potentially ~30% total if the EU tariff rises to 20%.	No punitive sectoral tariffs pre-2025. 5/4/2025: Introduced a general +10% bonus on clothing (measures “reciprocity”). Rate in force; possible increase to 20% following negotiations (suspended until July 2025).	Retail Prices +10-20%: Risk of a decline in U.S. demand, especially in the middle segment. Government: tariff +10% → -6.51 TP3T export total. Luxury brands could hold up (inelastic clientele), but smaller brands will suffer. Possible loss of competitiveness compared to US or exempt country manufacturers; some operators could absorb costs by reducing margins.
Fashion – Footwear/Leather Goods	Most-Favored-Nation Tariff5-8% on leather shoes, ~10%+ on others; +10% additional tax in effect (→ ~15% effective on leather shoes) starting in 2025.	No previous increase. April 2025: +10% general, also applied to footwear and leather goods. (Forecast: +20% EU post-July).	Cost increase Moderate but noticeable impact on handbags, shoes, etc. A slight decline in sales is possible in the U.S., especially for products with more price-sensitive pricing. High-end brands will maintain their market share (thanks to loyal customers), while mid-to-low-end manufacturers could lose ground. In light of the 20% tariff, U.S. distributors may reduce orders from Italy.
Technology (Electronics, equipment)	Many high-tech products tariff 0% MFN (exempt); other equipment ~2-4%. +10% extra on almost everything from 5/4/2025(The EU could become 20%).	Stable pre-2025 tariffs (sector not affected by trade war). March-April 2025: U.S. Abandons MFN, Introduces 10% on all industrial goods. The EU has announced 20% (on hold until July 2025). Special categories (pharmaceuticals, semiconductors) are exempt from the increase..	Moderate impact short-term: Italian tech exports held up thanks to pre-tariff inventories. Over the long term, tariffs of +10-20% could shift U.S. purchases toward domestic suppliers or FTA partners (e.g., South Korea, Mexico). Unique Italian products (specialized machinery and equipment) are less substitutable ⇒ limited decline. Economic estimates: with a 20% tariff and partial pass-through, U.S. prices would rise by +15% → possible double-digit sales contraction in sectors with high price elasticity. Risk of production relocation to the U.S. to avoid tariffs if measures become permanent.
Industrial Machinery	Most-favored-nation tariffs generally 0-5% (many duty-free machinery). From 2025 +10% extra on all EU machinery(EU forecast: 20%). Steel/Aluminum: Tariff 25% on metal inputs (232).	No new sector tariffs between 2018-2024 (except 232 metals since 2018). 1/1/2022: 232 exempt quota for the EU. 11/2/2025: Exemptions eliminated → steel/al continues 25%. 5/4/2025: +10% imports of machinery (e.g., industrial). 3/4/2025: +25% on motor vehicles and parts (affects earthmoving machinery and similar industrial vehicles).	Key Sector (~20% Italy-U.S. exports)High tariffs threaten market share. Short-term: mitigated effects (US customers brought forward orders). Medium-term: Italian machinery +10-20% is more expensive → some customers may turn to U.S. or non-EU suppliers. Potential impact: mechanical exports are declining of various % points, depending on the duration of the duties. With reciprocal tariffs, up to 32 billion $ in Italian exports subject to tariff increases. Possible slowdown in investments in Italy destined for the US market; pressure to relocate (on-site production) if barriers persist.
Agricultural Machinery	MFN duty typically 0% on tractors and agricultural machinery; subject to from 2025 +10% additional (→ 10% effective) in effect, potentially 20%.

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